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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."